The Real Threat Is a Market-Driven Dollar Downgrade
- The Real Threat Is a Market-Driven Dollar Downgrade
by https://schiffgold.com/
Last week, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US’s long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+. While the downgrade won’t significantly impact the US government’s ability to borrow, it should serve as a wake-up call because there is a much bigger problem looming on the horizon: a market-driven downgrade of the US dollar.
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The bond market got pummeled last week with four losing days before a rally on Friday driven by a weaker-than-expected jobs report. That rally wasn’t enough to recover all the losses, and yields finished the week above 4% across the board.
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We also saw a reversion in the 5-year and 30-year yields, with the 30-year closing above the 5-year for the first time in quite a while. The 5-year and 10-year yields remain inverted, still flashing recession.
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The upward movement of yields on the long end of the curve could indicate that bond traders are starting to reckon with reality, but there is still a long way to go. Generally, investors still seem to think that the Fed will be able to push price inflation back to the low levels we saw during the decade preceding the pandemic. They haven’t figured out that this easing price inflation is transitory. So, the bond market remains priced for a fantasy, although it appeared the smoke might be clearing as yields move up.
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