- Why Israel’s Brand New War Plan Against Iran Won’t Survive
Budgetary failures, political deadlock, technology goof-ups, and internal schisms are all standing in the way of Israel’s latest military plan.
Israel’s latest war plan is dubbed ‘Momentum’, seeking to maximize its technological edge against Iran and other regional enemies. But the IDF’s aspirations face significant barriers. The new war plan is a far more expensive successor to the previous ‘Gideon plan’, which informed Israeli weapons procurements in recent years.
More critically, as ambitious as the plan may be, it still requires political will to make it happen. With Israel’s ruling establishment trapped by political uncertainty ahead of elections in March 2020 and an ongoing criminal trial looming over Israeli Prime Minister’s Benjamin Netanyahu, the plan may not be able to actualize its set goals.
Momentum was supposed to be put into effect much earlier, but with Israel facing its third elections in a year; approval was delayed significantly due to countless coalition governments, and repeated budgetary reviews. That’s not to mention that the plan is prohibitively expensive. In 2019 alone, Israel spent more than $3.3 billion to increase its war footing. The new plan’s budget is significantly larger.
Historically, the only successful multi-year plans in Israeli history (Tefen plan: 2008 to 2012, Gideon plan) were given budgets by government decision, or agreements between the Ministries of Defense and Finance (Ya`alon-Kahlon Plan).