Exposing The Lie Behind The Nonfarm Payroll Numbers!
- Exposing The Lie Behind The Nonfarm Payroll Numbers!
by Tyler Durden, www.zerohedge.com
While we have already extensively deconstructed the quality components of jobs in the US, showing first that in June 240K full time jobs were lost, even as 360K part-time jobs were “gained”, and second that so far in 2013 only 130K full time jobs have been added offset by 557K part-time jobs, we had sinking suspicions that there was something off with the quantity component as well: after all, at an average monthly gain of precisely 201.8K jobs in the past six months (or in 2013), this number seemed just a little too perfect considering the Fed’s implicit target of generating just over 200K jobs in a half year period before it begins tapering, which in light of declining gross issuance and less monetizable instruments, has been the Fed’s goal all along. Today, courtesy of the monthly JOLTS survey we got just the confirmation we needed that, indeed, the official non-farm payroll number as per the Establishment Survey has been substantially off to the tune of a whopping 40% above what is quantitatively happening in reality.
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The JOLTS, or Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, gets little respect for the main reason that it is one month delayed. Indeed, moments ago it just reported data referencing the month of May. Considering last week we got June’s NFP data, this is largely irrelevant. Furthermore, since most people simply look at the survey for the simple “Job Openings” update and compare it to estimates, it provides little actionable data to the HFTs and algos that are all that’s left of market traders these days.
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