- Not if but when for Spanish bailout, experts believe!
Economic experts watching Spain don’t know how much money will be needed or precisely when, but some are near certain that Madrid will eventually seek a multi-billion euro bailout for its banks, and perhaps even for the state itself. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has repeatedly said Spain doesn’t need or want an international bailout, and the European Union, which along with the IMF has already rescued Greece, Ireland and Portugal, also dismisses such talk.
But economists believe that Spanish banks will have to turn to the euro zone’s rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), for help in covering losses caused by a property market crash which has yet to end.
Likewise, investors are fretting about how Rajoy’s centre-right government can enforce deep austerity while reviving a recession-bound economy at the same time. “They’re going to need EFSF money to recapitalise the banking sector,” said Carsten Brzeski, a senior economist at ING in Brussels. “I think we’ll only see a real end to the Spanish misery if the real estate market stabilises.”
Madrid is likely to hold out for some time. “The underlying picture in Spain is dramatic, but is it dramatic in the way that it needs a bailout package tomorrow? No,” Brzeski said. “But if you look ahead, let’s say the next six months, I would not be surprised if they (the banks) have to get some kind of European support.”
Market concerns about the eurozone’s fourth largest economy have deepened in the past week. Yields on the government’s 10-year bonds, which reflect the risk investors attach to owning Spanish debt, have risen above 6 per cent, a level that has proved a trigger point for other troubled eurozone countries. Yields eased overnight after a successful auction of bills, but investors remain wary.
… for more click here!