Michael Oliver: The Blowoff Top is Here

• Palisades Gold Radio
  Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis. To subscribe to our newsletter and get notified of new shows, please visit http://palisadesradio.ca
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  Michael discusses the bubbles in the equity markets, and the S&P indicates a top while momentum is waning. Bear markets typically begin with a gradual arm-wrestling decline and often no crashes, which he expects will occur. Michaels proprietary volatility indicators are now showing a similar pattern that we saw in 2008. Michael believes we have already seen the blowoff top, and that phase seems to be over. Many momentum structures are signaling a shift in the markets and most investors have yet to notice. He expects a regular arduous bear market with a series of declines and no crashes. Once this occurs, the Fed will likely cancel all talk of tapering. They will be unable to push the markets higher due to the amount of monetary expansion globally. Gold and silver are both building out structures for their next move, which he thinks will be significant. We’re going to see considerable capital flows from the broader markets into the metals. Investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the value of their money, and that will drive non-traditional investors to gold.
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  He expects the miners to snap back as soon as the momentum in gold and silver shifts. Finally, he makes predictions for the next couple of years for gold and silver, along with where he expects treasuries and commodities to head overall. Commodities are reflecting inflation, and he explains why investors should exclude steel and lumber. The broader commodity complex is at the same stage as in the late-1970s. Lastly, he breaks down where the dollar is likely to head from here and some potential targets for the dollar index. Time Stamp References:
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  0:00 – Intro
  0:39 – Equity Market Concerns
  8:49 – Equity Performance
  13:42 – Path From Here?
  16:02 – Fed’s Response?
  24:59 – Gold/Silver Behavior
  31:00 – Major Move Coming?
  32:53 – Capital Movements
  34:51 – Miners & GDX
  36:48 – AU/AG Next Two Years
  40:47 – Relationships
  43:06 – Monetary Inflation
  46:43 – US Dollar
  49:50 – Chaos Theory
  51:28 – Concluding Thoughts
  52:23 – Wrap Up
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  Talking Points From This Episode
  – His expectations for the stock markets and a likely coming decline.
  – Why the Fed’s ability to respond will be limited.
  – Expectations for gold, silver, and the miners.
  – Commodities, inflation, and where the dollar is heading.

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