Non-Farm Payroll: Economy Is Collapsing
- Non-Farm Payroll: Economy Is Collapsing
by Dave Kranzler, http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/
The Government’s “non-farm payroll” report – aka “the employment situation” – reported an alleged 160k jobs added to the economy in April. I am loathe to even discuss thisfairy-talereport out of disdain for ascribing any legitimacy to a complete work of fiction. It is mind-blowing to me that economic “experts” like Mark Zandi jump on the financial market propaganda networks and attempt to conduct a serious discussion about the numbers. …
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Having swept aside those reservations I want to point out that, of the 160k jobs allegedly added to the economy in April, the Government whipped up 233k jobs from its “birth/death model” statistical plug metric (click image to enlarge). Without this fictitious numerical addition to the overall report, the economy in April lost jobs (the 233k number is pre-seasonal adjustments so it’s not mathematically correct to subtract 233k from the 160k, but it is correct to infer that the pre-birth/death number was negative).
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The birth/death model is the Government’s estimate of the number of new businesses that were created in April net of the number of businesses that closed. There’s not really words available that can describe the absurdity of the B/D model. I’ll let the reader scan through the numbers in the graphic above to decide whether or not – in the context of every other economic report released in April – if the economy produced enough new businesses to affect the amount of hiring reflected in the Government’s report.
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