Singapore: Seasonal Flu vs Covid-19 — Which is More Deadly??
- For the record: do PCR test differentiate between seasonal flu and Covid-19? This is what the CDC says (emphasis mine):
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07/21/2021: Lab Alert: Changes to CDC RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 Testing
… After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only.
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… CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. Such assays can facilitate continued testing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and can save both time and resources as we head into influenza season.
– - Historically, how many people die of seasonal flu in Singapore? It is between 500-1000 per year.
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When flu turns fatal (16 Aug 2017)
by EVELINE GAN, https://www.todayonline.com/ (This is a local Singapore daily online newspaper)
… In Singapore, studies show that annual influenza-related deaths occur in about 15 out of 100,000 people.
– - With a population of about 5.8M, the deaths from seasonal flu comes out to:
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580 X 15 = 870 deaths per year
– - A figure of 588 is cited in the research paper:
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(Note: Stefan Ma is Ministry of Health, Singapore,182 PUBLICATIONS 34,699 CITATIONS)by Angela Chow,* Stefan Ma,* Ai Ee Ling,† and Suok Kai Chew
… Influenza was associated with an annual death rate from all causes, from underlying pneumonia and influenza, and from underlying circulatory and respiratory conditions of 14.8 (95% confidence interval 9.8-19.8), 2.9 (1.0–5.0), and 11.9 (8.3–15.7) per 100,000 person-years, respectively. These results are comparable with observations in the United States and subtropical Hong Kong.
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Influenza, in contrast, has caused an average of 588 excess deaths in Singapore annually. Influenza continues to cause an increasing amount of disease in Singapore ….
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read more.
pdf file here.
– - Professor Tambyah, a senior infectious diseases consultant at the (Singapore) National University Hospital (NUH) cites a figure of 500 deaths per year caused by seasonal flu. Picture top of post.
– - Covid-19 statistics (11 Oct 2021):
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Confirmed cases: 129,229 (Since Feb 2020)
Total Deaths: 172 (Since Feb 2020)
Mortality Rate: 0.098%
– - Seasonal flu mortality rate is typically 0.1-0.2%. It is fair to say Covid-19 is no worse than seasonal flu at least for Singapore. Covid-19 deaths in 2020 were around 35-37. So even if we take 172 deaths from Covid-19 since Feb 2020, It is still far less than seasonal flu deaths of 500-1000 per year.
– - Are there grounds for saying, that the MSM & authorities are fear mongering and implementing draconian, largely unnecessary measures? Draw your own conclusions!! Do we implement these measures for seasonal flu which is much worse?
– - 800 deaths a year — and life carries on normally (31 Aug 2021)
by https://twc2.org.sg/
Every year, new mutations of a higly transmissible infectious disease come through Singapore and kill some 800 persons annually — that’s the higher range of estimates by public health experts. The disease is easily spread through close contact and droplets. It is so endemic, it is hard to even estimate how many get it but with such mild symptoms (for the great majority) many do not even bother to see a doctor.
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We’re talking about influenza, or the “flu”.
A scientific paper from 2006, “Influenza-associated Deaths in Tropical Singapore” by Angela Chow, Stefan Ma, Ai Ee Ling and Suok Kai Chew (but based on a study that spanned eight years) found that influenza-associated mortality in Singapore occured at a rate of about 14.8 deaths per 100,000 population. This was similar to the rate in Hong Kong, which was found to be 16.4 per 100,000.
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Multiplied by our current population, this suggests an annual total of about 844 deaths a year in Singapore. Influenza kills more elderly people than younger persons. Among patients over 65 years old, the mortality rate was 167.8 persons per 100,000.
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The Singapore Ministry of Health’s HealthHub site has a webpage (accessed 31 August 2021) that, however, gives a lower annual figure. It says “An earlier study had estimated that influenza caused 588 deaths in Singapore annually”. It’s not clear which earlier study this refers to.
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The same HealthHub page also says that “In Singapore, influenza-associated hospitalisation has been estimated to be 29.6 per 100,000 persons each year, or about 1,500 hospitalisations per year.” That works out to be about 125 hospitalisations a month.
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A total of 588 – 844 influenza-associated fatalities a year (depending on which source one prefers to use) suggests that those patients who had to be hospitalised were generally very ill indeed. About half the 1,500 hospitalisations a year don’t make it out of the hospital alive.
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See also “Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations, Singapore, 2004–2008 and 2010–2012″ by Ang Li Wei and others, and a feature in TODAY newspaper dated 16 August 2017: “When flu turns fatal“. There is also a feature in the Straits Times from 19 April 2020 recounting the flu crises that have hit SIngapore in decades past: “Three times that the world coughed, and Singapore caught the bug“.
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As at 27 August 2021, Singapore has recorded 55 deaths from Covid-19 (source). This total covers a period of 17 months since the first fatality in late March 2020. As at 30 August 2021, “441 cases [were] currently warded in hospital,” reported the Ministry of Health in its daily press release. Most were well and merely under observation, the ministry said. “There are currently 19 cases of serious illness requiring oxygen supplementation, and 5 in critical condition in the intensive care unit (ICU).”
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read more.
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