Kevin Muir: Bearish Signals for Risk Assets Everywhere

• Palisades Gold Radio
  Tom welcomes back private trader and newsletter publisher Kevin Muir of “The Macro Tourist” back to the show. To subscribe to our newsletter and get notified of new shows, please visit http://palisadesradio.ca
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  Kevin discusses the Treasury General Account and how the Fed has mopped up some of the excess liquidity. They seem increasingly hawkish and are finally expressing concerns about inflation. The Fed and Central Banks are increasingly risky when one considers the heights of the stock markets. It seems they will choose to tighten until something breaks. Kevin explains how inflation is generated either by Central Banks lending money or government spending. The government has demonstrated over the last couple of years that they can spend almost without limits. The only limit being inflation. S.E.C. chair Gary Gensler was recently featured on mainstream news hinting that a crackdown is coming. With markets feeling a bit like the wild west and exuberant behavior by CEO’s investors need to pay attention.
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  He believes the next Fed chair may be more dovish and that Powell is likely to be replaced. China appears to be working hard to purge the excesses in its system. If your looking for the next big problem it likely won’t be in China. He believes the energy sector is going to be one of the greatest trades. Oil is still cheap but what would happen should it reach $200. How would the Fed respond in that scenario? Time Stamp References:
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  0:00 – Introduction
  0:50 – Fed & Risk Assets
  7:20 – QE & Balancing
  10:02 – Bond Markets & Yields
  16:20 – Tightening Risks
  19:02 – Inflation & Euro Markets
  23:27 – True Sources of Inflation
  31:30 – Other Market Risks
  40:08 – Fed Scandals
  45:25 – Evergrande Conclusions
  51:50 – The Biggest Risks
  57:43 – Energy, China, & Policy
  1:09:23 – Wrap Up
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  Talking Points From This Episode
  – Feds policy, liquidity issues, and scandals.
  – Drivers for inflation and supply shocks.
  – Possibility of market crackdown by the SEC.
  – China and the potential for higher energy prices.

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