- Nomura Warns “Do Not Underestimate The Global Contagion” From Brexit
by Tyler Durden, www.zerohedge.com
In a nutshell, Nomura expects the global impact of the Brexit to be more through the financial, confidence and psychology channels than simply through trade. Their warning is to not underestimate the depth and reach of global financial market contagion, which seems to have increased since 2008…
To assess the global impact of this surprise result, it is important to look beyond the trade channel. Once the financial, confidence and psychology channels are taken into account our warning is to not underestimate the depth and reach of financial market contagion to Asia.
A globally coordinated central bank response to a global financial market meltdown is quite likely, such as liquidity support through FX swap arrangements and possible FX intervention, but with policy credibility at such a low it is unclear how successful these emergency measures would ultimately be when there is extreme market risk aversion.
Do not underestimate the global contagion
At first glance, it would seem that the financial and economic impact of this result should be largely confined to the UK, given that its economic size is quite small at less than 4% of world GDP and world imports in 2015. However, we believe that this is too simplistic of a view and that the impact of the Brexit will be far reaching and long lasting, for two main reasons.