Monetary Bazookas Or Not, ‘Global Crisis is Inevitable’

• Monetary Bazookas Or Not, ‘Global Crisis is Inevitable’
  by Dembik Christopher, Economist, https://www.tradingfloor.com/  
  * There is an “inevitable” global financial crisis on the way
  * We are near the end of the global recovery cycle even if it may not feel like it
  * China could delay the crisis through a QE ‘monetary bazooka’
  * A new paradigm is emerging but we could jump from deflation to hyperinflation
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  Until recently, the consensus assumed a strengthening of the global economy in 2016. It won’t happen. If the global economic growth manages to reach 3.1% next year, as forecast by the IMF, it will be a miracle. 
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  We haven’t realised that the global economic recovery is already here for over six years. This recovery phase is weaker than previous ones and much more disparate. 
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  Since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007, the potential growth rate has been much lower everywhere: from 3% to 2% for the US, from 9.4% to 7.20% for China and from over 5% to below 4% for Poland. 
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  Many regions, such as the euro area, have remained on the sidelines and experienced stalling economic growth. Over the last two decades, economic cycles have been shortened due to the financialization of the economy, trade globalization, deregulation and the acceleration of innovation cycles. 
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  Since the 1990s, the US went through three recessions: in 1991, 2001 and 2009. It is erroneous to believe that the recovery has just begun. We are close to the end of the current economic cycle. The outbreak of a new global crisis in the coming years is inevitable.   
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  The lack of economic momentum next year and short periods of deflation related to falling oil prices will certainly push central banks to pursue their disastrous “extend-and-pretend” strategy which will increase the price of financial assets and global debt.
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