David Rosenberg: Is there a Global Currency War? ‘Indeed, there is!’
- Is there a global currency war? ‘Indeed,’ says David Rosenberg!
by Michael Babad, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/
Currency war? The International Monetary Fund says there isn’t a global currency war, and the G20 says there won’t be one. But, says David Rosenberg, “indeed” there is.
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The chief economist of Gluskin Sheff + Associates was referring to the weekend meeting of G20 finance officials in Moscow, which he deemed to beuseless, as well as other recent developments.”
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The G20 meeting was predictably a waste of time and ended up doing little to quash concerns over emerging currency wars,” Mr. Rosenberg said today.
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The yen and even sterling took their cues from the ‘nude nudge, wink wink’ approach to foreign exchange manipulations.”
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Remember that last week, the G7 pledged no competitive devaluations of currencies, though it signalled its acceptance of weaker currencies that come as a result of measures aimed at bolstering economies. Which means government can’t targettheir exchange rates, though their currencies may weaken via other moves, such as asset-buying programs.
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“We reiterate that excess volatility of financial flows and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability,” G20 finance ministers and central bankers then said in their weekend statement.
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“We will refrain from competitive devaluation. We will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes, will resist all forms of protectionism and keep our markets open.”
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IMF chief Christine Lagarde was then asked about this several times in a news conference, to the point, seemingly, of exasperation: “Zero currency war. Okay? That’s very simple. I have to say it again and I’ll be happy to repeat it as often as necessary.”
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There was much discussion of currencies in Moscow, she said, and worries. But no war. Methinks she doth protest too much? Mr. Rosenberg would appear to think so:
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Britain, he said, is “doing its utmost to weaken the pound (and its inflation mandate) and the expense of the rest of Europe.” The pound, he noted, is at a seven-month low amid the Bank of England’s higher tolerance of inflation.
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As for Japan, it is “purposefully weakening the yen at the expense of the rest of Asia (but the G20 decided that it is best to avoid addressing this.” The currency has dropped by 20 per in just over half a year, he noted.
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