Super Mario’s Big Bluff !
- Super Mario’s Big Bluff!
by Graham Summers, Phoenix Capital Research , http://www.gainspainscapital.com/
The financial world has entered a new state of mania with the announcement by the ECB that it will engage in “unlimited” bond buying to maintain lower interest rates for trouble EU sovereigns.
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As you no doubt know, our firm’s forecast was that the ECB would not engage in any large-scale bond purchasing programs. We maintain this view today regardless of the ECB’s announcement. The reason?
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The ECB stated very clearly that new bond purchases would only be made under strict conditions. Those conditions involve:
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1. Applying for a bailout from the EFSF
2. Meeting fiscal budget requirements
3. Implementing major spending cuts and various other austerity measures
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If this list sounds rather familiar, it’s the exact formula the ECB has used on Greece with absolutely abysmal results. And now the ECB is going to apply this failed approach to the EU as a whole?
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Let’s cut through the BS here. The use of the word “conditions” completely negates the word “unlimited.” Saying that you’ll buying “unlimited” bonds as long as EU sovereigns meet certain “conditions” actually means nothing. Greece has received over €200 billion in bailouts under “conditions.” How did that work out?
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So the ECB is not actually announcing a massive new bond-buying program. Instead it’s just announced that it’s willing to provide more money as long as EU nations hand over their fiscal sovereignty and implement austerity measures.
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This is nothing new. In fact, this has been the exact same program that the ECB’s had in place ever since the EU Crisis began in 2010. The fact that it has changed the wording around a bit changes nothing from a fundamental standpoint. Indeed, the program the ECB “announced” is, if anything, the last thing Spain or Italy actually wants.
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