- Forget China. ‘Hard Landing’ in US, Europe: Strategist!
By: Antonia Oprita, http://www.cnbc.com/
Developed economies are still experiencing an economic “hard landing” after the credit crunch, despite data showing small increases in gross domestic product. As a result, investors should worry more about the West than about China, which is managing its slowdown, a currency strategist told CNBC.com on Tuesday.
Beijing announced recently that it has enough economic leeway to ease monetary policy, but it also introduced curbs to cool the real-estate sector. Those apparently mixed signals prompted some market watchers to say they were afraid of a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy.
“The bigger cycle we’re experiencing [in the West] is the result of the bursting of the credit bubble [in 2007],” Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider Foreign Exchange, said in an interview. “This is what a hard landing looks like; I don’t know why people are so worried about China.”
If central banks in Europe and the U.S. “were attacking and managing the problem” when they noticed the bubble in the property markets, the crisis would not have become so deep, Gallo said. He added that central banks could have set up rules on who could or could not get loans and used monetary policy to cool the red-hot real-estate markets.
It will take a “very long” time for developed economies to get out of the hard landing phase as “it’s not just about deleveraging, it’s about credit channels not functioning,” he explained.
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