Israel is Pushing the Middle East Towards a Regional War
- Israel is Pushing the Middle East Towards a Regional War
by MICHAEL ARNOLD, https://www.trtworld.com/
Recent Israeli strikes in its neighbourhood are a calculated risk, but no matter how controlled, they can quickly spin out of control.
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Over the last month, Israel has launched a series of airstrikes and drone attacks in Iraq, Syria and now Lebanon, in what represents a dangerous escalation and arguably a change towards a more aggressive tactical stance.
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While the details of some of the events in question remain unclear – particularly those in Beirut’s Dahiyeh neighbourhood and in the eastern Bekaa – the totality of the events in question seems to indicate a change in approach towards Israel’s confrontation with Iran and its allies in the region.
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While Israeli rhetoric has long spoken of the ‘long hand’ of Iran the region, recently there has been a more deliberate effort to directly link Iranian proxies and allies in the region into what effectively amounts to a single front.
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Israeli officials have spoken of Yemen’s Houthis, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Iraqi Hashd al Shabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) in one breath as a demonstration of Tehran’s footprint and the reach of its influence in the region. Israel’s rhetoric, combined with its actions risk turning what may be a localised conflict into a regional flare-up.
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Political context
There are two main macro-level explanations for why things have gotten to where they have today. On a near-term level, the Trump administration is following the Obama administration’s lead in increasingly delegating responsibility to regional allies, which has decreased the likelihood of the US playing a role in de-escalating conflict.
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A carte blanche to Israel to carry out any policy objectives it desires, combined with increasingly cosy and open relationships with wealthy Arab Gulf States and a secure border with Egypt, has engendered a situation in which Israel is in a position of increased, and virtually unchecked, strength in the region.
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A recent declaration by the Iraqi intelligence services suggests that Israel launched drones used in attacks against Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq from YPG-controlled territory in Syria and backed by Saudi Arabia. If proven, it’s demonstrative of a geopolitical setting in which Israel is finding itself increasingly supported by Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The YPG is the Syrian branch of the PKK, designated a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US and the European Union.
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