- There is, IMO, 99.99999% probability that China will NOT goto war with Taiwan. The consequence of military action is very clear: every single Taiwanese will oppose China (peaceful re-unification will be dead forever). However, this does not mean China will not use some form of coercion to force Taiwan to comply to its wishes. All China need to do is to impose a naval blockade. This will crash the Taiwan economy. It will lead to limited clashes over the ocean but NO all out war. Any such military actions imply that there will be a China-USA war. The worry for the Chinese military is NOT Taiwan forces but American military might.
- The context for China’s insistence on re-unification with Taiwan is not often highlighted. If Taiwan breaks free and becomes an independent nation, it will lead to other provinces, region for eg. HongKong breaking free. Ie. it will lead to the demise of China. It is for this sole reason that China will never accept independence for Taiwan (and HongKong). The reality is that China DO NOT need Taiwan (or HongKong) economically or even politically (except for the point highlighted above). The reverse is NOT true. Ie. both Taiwan and HongKong need China for their future prosperity and well being. No country dares to attack Taiwan and HongKong because they are Chinese territory.
- RT America Published on Jan 3, 2019
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China must remain united while he called for the formal reunification of Taiwan. The president promised China would use force in order to remain a united country only in the case of foreign interference or pro-Taiwanese nationals threatening the one china policy. RT’s Sara Montes de Oca has the latest. Then, International relations specialist Sourabh Gupta joins News.Views.Hughes to offer his analysis.