- Whether or not 20 March marks the start of the global economic, financial and monetary collapse, I do not know. What I do know is that it is coming. Watch all the war preparations in the Middle East. When the collapse starts, war is not far behind. Hopefully, just a Greater Middle East War. A full-blown nuclear and biological WW3 means the end of civilization as we know it.
The Trajectory Of Tragedy!
From Mark J. Grant author of “Out of the Box and into Wall Street”
One More Greek Tragedy
We are approaching an endgame, March 20 will mark the spot on your calendar, and while it is certainly not “the” endgame; it is one of the continuum. During the next twenty-three days we are going to get some answers to a number of questions that have been unanswered and a number of verdicts that will set the stage for the performance. In the end I suspect there is going to be a decision made by Germany whether to fund the Greek bond payment independently of everything else or just to let them go and destroy the grand myth. Germany will probably end up playing chicken with itself in an exceedingly bizarre pact with the Devil.
In the first instance there is more and more evidence that the PSI will not go as hoped as many institutional investors do not take the bait and are not willing to roll-over for the good of Greece and Europe. Each time I hear some European politician speak about the obligations of money managers I am reminded that these people live far off the beaten path of reality. Somehow the “responsibility to shareholders,” so prevalent in other conversations, finds itself left out in the woodshed when speaking about the Greek bailout. The boys speak from both sides of their mouths which is a common trick amongst these rascals and one that I have never attempted though they seem to have it down pat.
Forbearance and fealty depend upon the subject at hand and Greece demands one covenant while corporate jurisprudence demands another. The often intoned phrase for bondholders, that this is the one and only time we will get spanked, rings with all of the truth of the Trojans proclaiming that they “Come in peace.” A horse tale history has taught us.
Aside from everything else the trick pony may well turn on a PSI deal that does not get accomplished and no time left to fix it. Consider the implications of a failed deal where Greece is over one hundred billion short and no time available to head back to all of the Parliaments to try to increase the bailout one more time. Realization may well turn to European panic and wails of desperation heard long into the night. I have discussed the “Collective Action Clause” and the CDS trigger or not but what if the transaction just does not get done as 26% or more of the bond holders choose not to participate for whatever reasons. This scenario is looking increasingly likely and should be seriously contemplated now.
April 22 and “Vive La Difference”
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